Statistics

Google has dredged up some interesting statistics. Bear with me:

Chance of being involved in an air crash: 1 in 11 million

Chance of dying in an air crash: 1 in 29 million

Chance of getting 5 and the bonus on the National Lottery: 1 in 2.3 million

Chance of a miscarriage in any pregnancy: 1 in 4

Chance of 2 consecutive miscarriages: 1 in 25

Chance of 3 consecutive miscarriages: 1% (don't ask me why this wasn't a 1 in whatever)


I'd like to start by saying I hate flying. (Stick with me on this, I am getting to the point) When I tell people this, they either fervently agree with me or start spewing the statistics, ahh you have more chance of being knocked over in the street etc etc. When you look at the statistics there, you'd be forgiven for thinking that it would be near enough IMPOSSIBLE to be involved in a plane crash. But people do.

Let's look at the National Lottery now. People are quite willing to part with cash knowing full well it is IMPOSSIBLE to win. Okay, maybe not IMPOSSIBLE but let's be honest, it isn't likely. But people do win.

Now to a more common statistic.  Miscarriage. Now most women who have had more than one pregnancy will have experienced this- anyone who hasn't has been unbelievably lucky. Statistics reassure most women that after one, they are pretty safe, with the rate for 2 in a row dropping considerably.

Thinking back to my brief conversation with a consultant on Thursday, I was told that the likelihood of me having another miscarriage straight after this was only 1% (i'm no mathematician but i imagine this percentage would represent quite a number of women nationally per year, at least into the hundreds, perhaps more).

Perhaps i'm being particularly obtuse here, but statistics mean absolutely nothing here do they? In simple terms, these things either happen to you or they don't. Chances and probabilities don't even come into it. So i will continue to avoid flying, cos some poor sod will end up on a doomed flight ( and why wouldn't it be me?) and continue to play the lottery (cos it works both ways).

And the next pregnancy...well i'm just not sure yet. At the minute it feels a little like playing a game of Russian roulette with my life. I know the odds are with me, but someone has got to be in that 1%.